Friday, April 15, 2011

Reply To Carl's Comment

Carl posted this comment:

What a laughable article... I own a microfit project and this is a great opportunity for all ontarions. My solar panels consistently produce 1350 kwh/kw installed per year so a 10 kw system produces over $11,000 in revenue offering a modest but safe return on my investement (considering the fixed price/kw vs inflation and the fact that its not a compounded return). Would you rather have your electricity produced by dangerous sources with plants built with borrowed money that cant be serviced and ran by inefficient goverment. Trust me, a 20 year fixed price $0.80 per kw is cheap compared to the ongoing startup and operational costs of nuclear including escalation and inflation. Why dont you put a cork in that wine bottle and join the band wagon. It makes absolute sense to put production of electricity in the public hands. Some day us fit contract owners will have the means to be completely energy self sufficient and the cost to do so paid for by you.


OK, Carl. Why don't you go to your neighbours and ask them to pay 80c/kWh for your power and see the reply you get.

Do you know why the Ontario Government first build Ontario Hydro? What was the dream that Adam Beck wanted for all Ontarians? Cheap plentiful power AT COST. You see, at the turn of the century Ontario had several private power producers, like you, who were gouging consumers. The Province put an end to it with Ontario Hydro. The next government will put an end to your "investment.", you can count on that.

Let's take your position to the extreme. You ask all Ontarians to produce their own power with solar. Can I ask you how you plan to do that on cloudy days or at nighttime? Can you show us how power at 10 times the current price is good for Ontarians? Maybe you think it is for you and your retirement fund. But consumers of power should not be your personal piggy bank. It's economic suicide and will have to be stopped.

Now, you claim your panels produce 1350kWh of power per year. How much does your home consume per year? Here is my consumption for 2010: 19,000kWh (a 1000sqr ft home with 2 people). You didn't even produce 1/10th of my consumption bud.

Plus, explain to me how a meager 1350kWh of power at $0.80/kWh comes to $11,000. That's only $1,080 per year.

I would really like to see your daily output numbers since the beginning. Care to share it with us?

Email me.

83 comments:

  1. It appears Carl is quoting a per panel figure. But he is probably quoting from the sales literature. Carl your figures mean nothing unless you can find some method to verify them with someon like Mr. Wakefield. Even if it were correct the whole scheme will be dead in the water within a few years and your best bet then will be to purchase some very expensive batteries.

    Have fun, I have my money on nuclear.

    W.

    ReplyDelete
  2. First point, the production figures I quoted on my panels are from independent testers like the NREL and other similar facilities and not from sales literature (which are grossly over inflated and should not be held at face value). Also, if you read more carefully, my stated production is per installed kw so take 1350 x 10 and you will get the annual production for a typical microfit project that uses similar panels. This figure is more inline with your stated usage which as I understand from other posts on this site is significantly overtallied with hydro one's meter multipliers. 19,000 kwh per year is almost 2000 watts per hour on average (hydro one is either a pathological liar or must think we all operate grow ops) A 10 kw system should service most home owners electrical needs just fine.
    Second point, before you paint me and other fit contract owners as a price gougers, understand that energy does not come free, either a big company with investors or regular joes like you and me have to invest the money to produce it and at the end of the day we will want a return on that investement. My previous post clearly stated that the return is modest considering that the cost per kwh produced is fixed over 20 years. If the price was much lower, I'd be better off placing my money in GIC's or mutual funds where it can grow at a compound rate.

    Third thing I'd like to point out, our electricity system is instantaneous, meaning when you flick on a ligt switch or turn on your kettle etc, that electricity is being generated at that exact instant in a nuclear plant or by hydrological power or by coal power etc. Currently we do not have a feasible storage system to store energy for future use. Thus, you tell me how building megawatts worth of nuclear production capability at a cost of many billions (which, by the way, Ontario Power Generation does not have) only to use it in summer for a couple hours a day when people turn on their air conditioners and incur a consumption spike. Then tell me how to turn off the nuclear power when poeple turn off their air conditioners (remember, no storage). If you can figure that out, go phone Japan and let me them know too because im sure they`d love to hear it. Oh wait...you cant do that with nuclear... you could do it with coal plants but Canada is under international mandate to reduce coal usage and pollutions sucks so I guess thats out... natural gas?? best idea yet and the one thats gonna be implemented to balance out production with loads, still pollution though and its gonna suck when all our natural gas is being bought up to produce electricity resulting in your heating bills going up... perhaps you could start another forum then.

    ReplyDelete
  3. At the end of the day, we live in a world of finite limits. Unless you you can tell us where a bottomless oil reservoir is located we are all faced with the problem of diminishing energy reserves. Gone are the days of cheap energy, get over it. Our future energy system will consist of either nuclear and a combination of renewable or all renewables. It is the only feasible way forward and how are we ever going to reach that goal without making it financially feasible for people to invest in?? I am 27 years old with my first son on the way and a far way from retirement. I feel the pinch of raising energy costs and fear for my families future if I cannot afford to keep them warm or the lights on. Instead of bitching and moaning about it I choose to invest in renewables and leverage heavily to do so. I am quite convinced energy supply will be the greatest hurdle of our generation if we do not act now.

    To anonymous, Id like to see the next government just pull the plug on us. There would be blood on the streets. But, even if that did happen I could just switch my array to net metering and use my monthly hydro payment to pay for my panels which I would eventually own and have producing free energy for me while people without their own renewable energy resources continue to watch their costs go up while we continue to use up limited energy sources. Ontario's long term energy plan clearly states that hydro costs are going to increase 40% in 5 years and double in 20. Thus even this investment strategy becomes pretty lucrative as time goes on.

    I have recieved comments like this from many people and it always astonishes me. Like I'm some sort of crook. As far as Im convinced we are all more closely related to the vulture than the apes. We are natures most crafted opportunist and like the vulture would prefer our meal without having to kill it. I bet you never even think twice about putting your money in some compounding investement and letting your money grow without effort... perhaps we are not so different after all except that at least my investment does the future a favour..

    ReplyDelete
  4. Carl, I don't care what the literature says you SHOULD be producing, I want to know what you ACTUALLY produce. I suspect it's a lot lower.

    10 times? How much money did you put into this? They are $1000 for each 200W panel. 10kW means you have 50 panels?

    200W panels is the name plate. Your actual physical output is likely 15% of that in summer, and 1-3% in winter. So that means you need 100 times more panels to meet my demand.

    Also, Carl, it's not the average daily use you have to have panels to provide for, it's peak demand. That's as much as 130kWh a day in winter, on the coldest days. That's what you have to have capacity for. The absolute maximum consumption.

    Your understanding on nuke power is incorrect. Nuke power in Ontario is BASE LOAD supply. It does not change with demand. It's a constant supply regardless of demand (you can check that at the IESO website). Coal and hydro are throttled to meet demand. See: http://ontariowindperformance.wordpress.com/2010/10/14/chapter-4-11-2-wind-replacing-coal/

    How do you expect your panels to power all of Ontario at night (you know our 14 hour nights in winter) or when we get weeks of cloudy days?

    Lastly, future energy must be more expensive? Says who, you? Or the econ-nutcases who want to kill civilization? Who do you think higher energy costs will hurt the most? The poor, and it will be a major job killer. You better hope your income is not based on cheap plentiful energy.

    Oh, and that also means my consumption is not a licence for you to pad your piggy bank. Make power production AT COST, not for profit. That means not you.

    There is no fundemental reason electrical power in Ontario should be expensive. Kill FIT, kill the Global Adjustment, produce power ONLY from sources with high Capacity Value (your panels have zero capacity value), and then power will continue to be what it should be for a healthy society -- cheap and plentiful.

    You want to live like we did in the 1700's then go a head, but don't expect the rest of us will want to.

    Your best bet is to buy about 100 deep charge batteres, run your own home for a year on just your panels, then come back here and tell us how it went.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Carl, email me off list please.

    jrwakefield@mcswiz.com

    ReplyDelete
  6. The literature does not say what I should be producing, it says what was produced during real world condition independent testing, not the same tests that determines nameplate capacity or power at standard test conditions. I agree market dominated polycrystaline technology hardly ever deliver rated power as we seldom have standard test conditions in real world. However recent devolopments in photovoltaic technology is closing the gap with inmproved thermal coefficients and better aborbtion of diffused and low level light ei winter. Research tandem junction amorphous silicon. These panels have half the name plate efficiency as traditional solar panels but will out produce and provide a much more levelized production curve over an entire year. This technology can produce 1350kwh of energy over one year per installed kw.

    And sell power at production cost? Be realistic, that will never happen. Unless you produce something yourself you will be purchasing it from someone else with a profit margin built into the cost. No one works for free and noone would invest capital into nuclear plants or coal refineries or anything else for that matter without a profitable return.

    The $0.802 rate is heaviliy dependent on the capital cost of equipment and is the rate used to get he ball rolling on alternative energy manfucaturing in Ontario. Increased manufacturing will lower the price of equipment which will be reflected with lower future fit rates as is clearly defined in the program description. Sooner or later, alternative energy costs will be on par with then below conventional energy resources but that wont happen unless it is invested in now.

    I agree that we should have cheap plentiful power but you will never reach that by harvesting diminishing energy sources(Just look at oil cost over the last 30 years, we have to pay for wars and better refinment techonolgy and off shore drilling just to fill up now). The sun provides virtually unlimited energy in the form of solar and wind and is right outside your front door for the taking. When the cost of production gets low enough everyone will be able to purchase solar and battery technology cheaply and harvest free energy for life onsite without distribution, degradation, operational, profit grid upgrades costs etc etc etc. Tell me how you can beat that..

    Also, the retail cost of any product has nothing to do with the cost of production, its all in how much the market will bear. I agree it sucks when you get a 500 dollar hdyro bill after using hydro as sparingly as possible(which I have had several of) but its the price you pay for not producing it yourself. Noone is forcing you to purchase hydro from Hydro One. If you think you pay to much than produce it yourself or live without.

    And being off grid involves balancing your load profile with your generation profile on a continual basis and buffering the descrepancy with a battery storage system. Minimizing battery requirements is implemented with a system of variable technologies and effective load management. Battery techonology is also constantly improving, research Vanadium Redox, these batteries never lose capacity out and can be built incrementally with additions of an electrolyte fluid which is plentiful and safe for the environment.

    Technology is improving and gearing towards this. Stop badmouthing a solid path before researching and weighing all the facts. Our Energy future has a lot more faces than just he cost you pay at end.

    I cannot send you a list as I have not had enough time to compile one over an extended period of time, however all indications including verbal verification from other system owners who have been running longer match research data so I am goin on that. I will gladly submit after one year to help improve your confidence in the system.

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